import logging import math import sys from xonstat.models import PlayerGlicko log = logging.getLogger(__name__) # DEBUG # log.addHandler(logging.StreamHandler()) # log.setLevel(logging.DEBUG) # the default system volatility constant TAU = 0.3 def calc_g(phi): return 1 / math.sqrt(1 + (3 * phi ** 2) / (math.pi ** 2)) def calc_e(mu, mu_j, phi_j): return 1. / (1 + math.exp(-calc_g(phi_j) * (mu - mu_j))) def calc_v(gs, es): """ Estimated variance of the team or player's ratings based only on game outcomes. """ total = 0.0 for i in range(len(gs)): total += (gs[i] ** 2) * es[i] * (1-es[i]) return 1. / total def calc_delta(v, gs, es, results): """ Compute the estimated improvement in rating by comparing the pre-period rating to the performance rating based only on game outcomes. """ total = 0.0 for i in range(len(gs)): total += gs[i] * (results[i] - es[i]) return v * total def calc_sigma_bar(sigma, delta, phi, v, tau=TAU): """ Compute the new volatility. """ epsilon = 0.000001 A = a = math.log(sigma**2) # pre-compute some terms delta_sq = delta ** 2 phi_sq = phi ** 2 def f(x): e_up_x = math.e ** x term_a = (e_up_x * (delta_sq - phi_sq - v - e_up_x)) / (2 * (phi_sq + v + e_up_x) ** 2) term_b = (x - a) / tau ** 2 return term_a - term_b if delta_sq > (phi_sq + v): B = math.log(delta_sq - phi_sq - v) else: k = 1 while f(a - k * tau) < 0: k += 1 B = a - k * tau fa, fb = f(A), f(B) while abs(B - A) > epsilon: C = A + (A - B) * (fa / (fb - fa)) fc = f(C) if fc * fb < 0: A, fa = B, fb else: fa /= 2 B, fb = C, fc # DEBUG # log.debug("A={}, B={}, C={}, fA={}, fB={}, fC={}".format(A, B, C, fa, fb, fc)) return math.e ** (A / 2) def rate(player, opponents, results): """ Calculate the ratings improvement for a given player, provided their opponents and corresponding results versus them. """ p_g2 = player.to_glicko2() gs = [] es = [] for i in range(len(opponents)): o_g2 = opponents[i].to_glicko2() gs.append(calc_g(o_g2.phi)) es.append(calc_e(p_g2.mu, o_g2.mu, o_g2.phi)) # DEBUG # log.debug("j={} muj={} phij={} g={} e={} s={}" # .format(i+1, o_g2.mu, o_g2.phi, gs[i], es[i], results[i])) v = calc_v(gs, es) delta = calc_delta(v, gs, es, results) sigma_bar = calc_sigma_bar(p_g2.sigma, delta, p_g2.phi, v) phi_tmp = math.sqrt(p_g2.phi ** 2 + sigma_bar ** 2) phi_bar = 1/math.sqrt((1/phi_tmp**2) + (1/v)) sum_terms = 0.0 for i in range(len(opponents)): sum_terms += gs[i] * (results[i] - es[i]) mu_bar = p_g2.mu + phi_bar**2 * sum_terms new_rating = PlayerGlicko(player.player_id, player.game_type_cd, player.category, mu_bar, phi_bar, sigma_bar).from_glicko2() # DEBUG # log.debug("v={}".format(v)) # log.debug("delta={}".format(delta)) # log.debug("sigma_temp={}".format(sigma_temp)) # log.debug("sigma_bar={}".format(sigma_bar)) # log.debug("phi_bar={}".format(phi_bar)) # log.debug("mu_bar={}".format(mu_bar)) # log.debug("new_rating: {} {} {}".format(new_rating.mu, new_rating.phi, new_rating.sigma)) return new_rating class KReduction: """ Scale the points gained or lost for players based on time played in the given game. """ def __init__(self, full_time=600, min_time=120, min_ratio=0.5): # full time is the time played to count the player in a game self.full_time = full_time # min time is the time played to count the player at all in a game self.min_time = min_time # min_ratio is the ratio of the game's time to be played to be counted fully (provided # they went past `full_time` and `min_time` above. self.min_ratio = min_ratio def eval(self, my_time, match_time): # kick out players who didn't play enough of the match if my_time < self.min_time: return 0.0 if my_time < self.min_ratio * match_time: return 0.0 # scale based on time played versus what is defined as `full_time` if my_time < self.full_time: k = my_time / float(self.full_time) else: k = 1.0 return k # Parameters for reduction of points KREDUCTION = KReduction() def main(): # the example in the actual Glicko2 paper, for verification purposes pA = PlayerGlicko(1, "duel", mu=1500, phi=200) pB = PlayerGlicko(2, "duel", mu=1400, phi=30) pC = PlayerGlicko(3, "duel", mu=1550, phi=100) pD = PlayerGlicko(4, "duel", mu=1700, phi=300) opponents = [pB, pC, pD] results = [1, 0, 0] rate(pA, opponents, results) if __name__ == "__main__": sys.exit(main())